No Change in Activity Levels

Mold Business Index for October 2006

Activity levels for North American moldmakers didn’t change much during the latest reporting period. So after losing altitude for most of 2006, moldmakers seem to be in an uneasy holding pattern as the year closes. Based on the latest survey for our Mold Business Index (MBI), the MBI value for October was exactly 50.0. This is a 6.1 percentage point increase from the September value of 43.9. All of the components that comprise the MBI were mostly steady in October when compared with the previous month. Materials Prices increased again, but the upward momentum is abating. Future Expectations elevated to 58.3 in October after a neutral reading of 50.0 in September.

Problems associated with the Big 3 automakers, a sharp decline in residential construction activity and ongoing concerns about the war in Iraq continued to weigh on the U.S. manufacturing sector in recent weeks. These issues notwithstanding, the worst appears to be over. The U.S. economy continues to expand, overall employment levels are strong and energy prices are declining. The economy will regain its upward momentum in 2007 and our forecast calls for a gradual improvement in moldmaking activity shortly thereafter. Global demand for molded products is expanding and the capacity utilization rates for most sectors of the North American injection molding industry are also on the rise. These factors will spur increased capital investment for new injection molding machines and tooling next year.

In the latest month, the sub-index for New Orders of molds was 50.0, which means that the amount of new business was unchanged when compared with the previous month. Future gains in the total MBI depend on steady increases in new orders of molds. Production levels were also unchanged, as the latest Production sub-index was 50.0. The Employment component was 55.6, which indicates that overall payrolls were up a bit in recent weeks. The industry’s overall backlog was mostly steady, as the Backlog sub-index registered 47.2 in October.

The Mold Prices sub-index for October was 50.0. This means that the prices received for new molds were also unchanged in the latest month. The prices paid for materials increased again, as the latest sub-index for Materials Prices was 61.1. Supplier Delivery Times were little changed on average, as this sub-index posted a value of 47.2 in October. There was no change in the number of offshore orders for new molds, as the Export Orders sub-index was 50.0.

The Future Expectations sub-index for October was 58.3. This is up nicely from the 50.0 that was posted in the previous month. There was no change in the reported capital investment plans.

October 2006

%
Positive

%
Equal

%
Negative
Net % Difference
Sub-
Index
New Orders
28
44
28
0
50.0
Production
22
56
22
0
50.0
Employment
28
55
17
11
55.6
Backlog
28
39
33
-5
47.2
Export Orders
0
100
0
0
50.0
Supplier Deliveries
17
61
22
-5
47.2
Materials Prices
22
78
0
22
61.1
Mold Prices
17
66
17
0
50.0
Future Expectations
39
39
22
17
58.3
Total Mold Business Index for October 2006: 50.0. The total Mold Business Index is a weighted average of the sub-indices for new orders, production, employees, backlog, exports and supplier deliveries.

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