Moldmaking Index Sees Small Turnaround
Supplier deliveries, production and employment marginally boosted the Moldmaking Index, at 55.4 for July 2018.
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July’s Moldmaking Index data was primarily supported by supplier
deliveries. In recent months, supplier deliveries and employment have sustained the Moldmaking Index, rather than new orders and production (as was the case previously).
Supplier deliveries readings from 2018 have significantly surpassed historical highs set during the economy’s recovery from the Great Recession. In four of the first seven months of 2018, the reading for supplier deliveries beat the last record, which occurred in the fourth quarter of 2011.
Registering 55.4 for July, the Gardner Business Index (GBI): Moldmaking increased modestly after experiencing a significant slowdown in growth in the first half of the year. Since the beginning of the year, the Moldmaking Index has fallen 8.3 percent. However, the Moldmaking Index is up 0.3 percent from the same month one year ago. Gardner Intelligence’s review of the underlying data for the month reveals that growth in supplier deliveries, production and employment drove the Moldmaking Index’s average-based calculation higher while new orders, backlog and exports pulled the Moldmaking Index’s average-based calculation lower. Only exports reported contraction in July. Backlog registered 50.0, a value that indicates “no change” from the prior month.
Only exports reported contraction in July.
One common trend that all manufacturing technologies, including moldmaking, are experiencing is the on-going rapid expansion of supplier deliveries. The last record-high reading for supplier deliveries before the fourth quarter of 2017 was 60.9, which occurred in late 2011. Since the beginning of 2018, readings for supplier deliveries have been above 60.9 in four of the last seven months. Across all the manufacturing technologies that Gardner Intelligence tracks, Moldmaking’s July performance comparatively was better. The Moldmaking Index experienced expansion in four of the six metrics used to calculate the total Moldmaking Index: production, new orders, employment and supplier deliveries. For the third time in 2018, exports contracted.
Across all the manufacturing technologies that Gardner Intelligence tracks, Moldmaking’s July performance comparatively was better.
July’s Moldmaking Index reading solely among custom processors moved higher for a third consecutive month. Custom processors indicated better economic conditions in general, including increased supplier deliveries, new orders and production. None of the business metrics that custom processors report contracted during the month.
About the Author
Michael Guckes
Michael Guckes is the chief economist for Gardner Intelligence, a division of Gardner Business Media (Cincinnati, Ohio, United States). He has performed economic analysis, modeling and forecasting work for nearly 20 years among a range of industries. He is available at mguckes@gardnerweb.com.
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