Moldmaking Index Moves Higher
March 2019 – 53.9
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An enduring expansion in supplier deliveries, new orders, employment and production have kept the Moldmaking Index expanding for a record-breaking 29 months. Leading indicators including new orders and employment suggest further expansion ahead.
Greater production activity relative to new orders is resulting in reduced backlogs among manufacturers. Backlogs in March contracted at a rate not seen since 2016.
The Gardner Business Index (GBI): Moldmaking climbed to 53.9 through March’s end. During the last nine-months, the Index oscillated within a narrow range of readings, averaging 53.6. Compared to March 2019, the Index is down 9.9 percent; however, one year ago the Index was just coming off February 2018’s all-time high. Gardner Intelligence’s review of the month’s underlying data reveals production, supplier deliveries, new orders and employment lifted the Index higher, while exports and backlogs pulled it lower. Only backlogs registered a contractionary reading for the month.
The March data signaled strong activity in production, new orders and employment. The last time these all expanded at similar rates was May 2018, just three months after the Index reached its peak in the current business cycle. The greater expansion in production compared to new orders and unchanging export orders sent March’s backlog reading to its lowest level since 2016’s fourth quarter. Since July 2018, production activity generally outpaced new orders, causing a significant contraction in backlogs at times.
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