Aerospace and Medical
The aerospace and medical markets are both expected to grow in 2015.
Aerospace Growing Significantly in 2015
Virtually every metric I track for the aerospace industry is pointing toward strong mold production and consumption in 2015.
Real disposable income is growing at its fastest annual rate in two years and is closing in on its fastest rate of growth in almost eight years, or pre-financial collapse. In fact, the month-over-month growth rate in disposable income is higher the historical average for the first time since March 2011 (excluding October through December, which were artificially inflated due to changes in tax laws). The rapidly accelerating growth in disposable income has led to accelerating growth in both system revenue passenger miles, which are growing at their fastest rate in nearly four years, and consumer spending on air travel, which is growing at virtually its fastest rate in a decade. These two metrics are important leading indicators for aerospace industrial production.
The chart shows the correlation between system revenue passenger miles and aerospace industrial production. Changes in the former tend to lead changes in the latter by about 12 months, on average. Passenger miles have been steadily accelerating since early 2013, and this indicates that aerospace production should see more accelerating growth in 2015. In addition, capacity utilization at aerospace manufacturers has been growing significantly. Both of these trends are a good indication that mold use and consumption in the aerospace industry will increase this year.
Business conditions in the aerospace industry have been trending up since last August, and the industry is growing at virtually its fastest rate since September 2012. New orders and production have increased dramatically in recent months.